Our latest in a series about the Bulls upcoming offseason is about the luxury tax. Mortal enemy of the Chicago Bulls, as well as an enemy of BaB readers sick of me harping on it for the past...oh man, I've been doing this too long.
But it's somewhat timely as Bulls GM Gar Forman was asked about it Wednesday morning on The Score, specifically referencing Bulls chairman Jerry Reinsdorf's stance that it'd be paid for a winner and how that mindset may have changed in light of Derrick Rose's lengthy absence next season.
What Jerry has said is "if we're in a position to compete, that we would consider going into the tax". Obviously we've been in a position to compete the last couple of years. Then when I talk about our long-term window, we feel we're going to be in a position to compete. I'm really confident that we will go into the tax if it makes basketball sense, as far as our long-term vision with this team. If it does, I think we'll go into the tax. I don't think we'll go into the tax for a short-term plug-in. But we're going to protect our assets, we're going to continue to build this thing for the next 5-7, 10 years built around Derrick and some of our young pieces.
Gar's correct that his boss has been lukewarm on the issue, and he follows suit here. But why (still) so scared?
Omer Asik is a restricted free agent and yfBB laid out the options for the Bulls. It likely cost the Bulls $5 million to keep Asik for next season, but for a longer and more expensive deal than he may seem to be worth, presenting a dilemma: the Bulls can't really afford to keep him, but they moreso can't afford to lose him.
When looking around the NBA over the last decade, one can get flabbergasted at the tens of millions that bums get because they're seven-footers. It can be a complete mindrape to even see that guys like Darko Milicic and Eddy Curry even land spots on NBA rosters, let alone the fact that just about every NBA center between their rookie contract and hanging onto the ends of benches made over $5 million in 2011-12.
Asik may not not replaceable
Tim Duncan (unrestricted), Spencer Hawes, and Roy Hibbert (restricted) aren't going anywhere [some would disagree on Hawes, but maybe these playoffs change things -yfbb]. If Brook Lopez (R) isn't a Net next season, it'll be a sign-and-trade. What you're left with is a group of a specific type of player that all NBA teams need where the best un-signed option is: Javale McGee (R). Because of this, McGee will make a lot -- and I mean dozens of millions of dollars over the next three or four years wherever he goes.
The available centers for the Bulls to replace Asik are, according to ESPN.com (R=restricted free agent): Jason Collins, Greg Stiemsma (R), Ryan Hollins, Semih Erden, Brian Cardinal, Ian Mahinmi, Yi Jianlian, JaVale McGee (R), Ben Wallace, Marcus Camby, Roy Hibbert (R), Kyrylo Fesenko, Jordan Hill, Marreese Speights, Hamed Haddadi, Eddy Curry, Juwan Howard, Ronny Turiaf, Kwame Brown, Brook Lopez (R), Chris Kaman, Nazr Mohammed, Earl Clark, Lavoy Allen (R), Spencer Hawes, Robin Lopez (R), Joel Przybilla, Hasheem Thabeet, Jason Thompson, Boris Diaw, Tim Duncan, Jamaal Magloire, Aaron Gray, and maybe a handful of others I've missed because they're just that much worse.
Some side-news from the knee surgery press conference Tuesday, where Bulls GM Gar Forman also addressed the media:
General manager Gar Forman said the team will pick up coach Tom Thibodeau's option for next season and will starting working on an extension this summer.
"Obviously, we value Tom greatly," Forman said. "We value what he brings to the organization and what he brings to the team and think he's one of the finest coaches in the league and we're hopeful he'll be our coach long-term.
One thing I'm curious of: does this option year precludes any kind of raise Thibs would receive through an extension? If they work out a contract extension, would that start this coming season and the option year is 'ripped up'? Or would it start only after next season?
I think the difference matters because this upcoming third year of the original contract likely is still going to be underpaying the nearly two-time coach of the year. So I could still see some hard-lined negotiation (as it always is with the Bulls) to come when it gets to the part of actually factoring in a raise (and when) for Thibs. There has already been plays through the media by Thibs's camp.
In related news, Dallas extended their coach Rick Carlisle with a 4-year contract. I had originally thought (and sorry for spreading misinformation in the comments) that Carlisle was in a similar situation to Thibs, but indeed Carlisle would've been completely without a contract on 7/1, whereas the Bulls had this option year for Thibodeau.
The Bulls held a press conference at Rush University Medical Center on Tuesday afternoon, to give an update on Derrick Rose's ACL surgery. Team physician Brian Cole gave the latest prognosis:
Cole estimated that Rose would need eight to 12 months for a full recovery, and saw no reason why his performance should be diminished.
There's more, of course, but this is mostly standard, yet vague, stuff...pretty much how a 4-month deviation in recovery time can be explained. And thus how KC Johnson can call that an 'optimistic assessment', yet PBT sees this as somehow different and worse than an earlier report.
It's neither, it's nothing. Which is fine. There isn't going to be much in terms of reliable news with this, especially considering how the Bulls treated their paying public with the various and much less serious injuries to Rose all season. So I wouldn't expect anything concrete, and certainly won't care what Reggie Rose thinks about it.
A couple bits that were actually interesting though:
Dr. Brian Cole estimates 8-12 months for DRose recovery.
KC Johnson
[Press conference is still going -yfbb]
Omer Asik was selected in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft (Pritchslapped!) and then signed in the summer of 2010 with their cap room to a 2-year deal.
Those 2 years are over, the Bulls are currently over the cap for the foreseeable future, and Asik is a Restricted Free Agent. Seems soon, doesn't it? The CBA agrees, and thus why there's different rules for him than there are for 1st rounders coming off of their usual 3-4 year contracts.
The Bulls can:
Other teams over the cap can use their cap exceptions (the biggest being the MLE) to make an offer to Asik. Teams under the cap (of which there are many this offseason) can offer more based on their cap room. The Bulls have 'early' Bird rights on Omer, as he's only been on the team for 2 seasons. So, unlike the 'full' Bird rights which allow a team like them (i.e., over the cap) to retain their own players at any amount, the Bulls have restrictions as to what amount of a contract they can pay Asik. Luckily, those limitations also apply to what other teams can offer him.
[This will be the first in a series -yfbb]
The Bulls' offseason will be a little complicated, as they'll have to navigate being over the salary cap. Before entering the free agent period in July, the organization will have to decide how to use exemptions, decide which options to pick up, which to free off the books at what price, and whether or not it's advantageous to enter luxury tax territory.
It's most important before looking at these changes -- realistic, idealistic, hare-brained, potential, etc. -- to examine, the status quo of the books.
The Bulls have a lot of salary-cap related questions when it comes to re-tooling while also letting their roster recuperate. It's going to be very interesting to see how they treat next season, as well as their future salary obligations.
So be mindful, yet wary, of what those close to the team suggest could be happening. They no-doubt have ideas of what to expect based on what they're hearing form the team, but some of it could be presented in a less-than-accurate light.
As an example of the latter, the Sun-Times is way off base with this:
The Bulls hold options on Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson, but they aren't all likely to return because the Bulls need to clear some cap space to re-sign Gibson, who will be eligible for free agency after next season...the Bulls will be bumping their head on the salary-cap ceiling. No matter how much they might want to keep Watson and Korver, something will have to give.
As readers here know: it's the tax, not the cap, and you can plow your head right through that 'ceiling', as long as you're willing to pay.
I'm not saying that's the best option, but it shouldn't be ignored as one. At the least: frame it as something the Org. is unwilling to do instead of unable to do.
KC Johnson is more accurate, but it's a similarly tepid message:
[the luxury tax] is projected to rise only nominally while becoming more punitive in the future...the Bulls basically are hamstrung for making significant upgrades to the roster for next season. Call it a treading water season until Rose and Deng get fully healthy, and the team makes a playoff push.
This is just 'informed speculation', but it is informed. We also have history as our guide to suggest that we shouldn't expect any salary additions...and if anything should expect subtractions. But always remember it's a choice of theirs, not an obligation.
